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APS China Monthly
APS China Monthly
The APS China Monthly* is a collection of thought pieces and is part of our commitment to be your partner in understanding and investing in China.Synopses of the APS China Monthly are presented here and registered users may access our thought pieces here.
*The APS China Monthly was previously known as the APS China Quarterly.
APS China Monthly
september 2023
China is intent on blazing a fresh
path, with a new development model that is more inclusive, shifting away from
the old development path of excessive investments in real estate and
infrastructure.
In “A New Economic Path”, APS China Deputy Chairman Dr. Tan Kong Yam estimates the pace of growth during this transition as well as its duration, suggests how measures that improve household welfare to enhance consumption as a new engine of growth can be funded, and explains why the danger of a Lehman moment is much less likely in China.
He also shares his view on what it means for various segments of Chinese society, and the sectors that will play leading roles in China’s economy for years to come.
August 2023
China’s post-Covid consumption
recovery has fallen short of many investors’ expectations. The recent 618 sales
event, for example, was much weaker than expected and outbound travel has
remained well below pre-Covid levels. However, we would describe the recovery
as uneven and not an indication that the long-term trend in consumption
upgrading has ended.
In
this note, our consumer analyst Wang Jiayuan explores the drivers behind an
“M-shaped” recovery where high-end and low-end consumption fare better than
mid-range segments, as well as the divergent trends and their investment
implications.
July 2023
When it comes to investing, you should
always probe, ask why, and be critical, because there might be opportunities
for you to capitalize on. In a keynote address at the 17th annual
APS client event in Shenzhen in May, I shared with the audience eight myths –
some baffling, some amusing, and some distasteful. Investors will do well to
look at China through a clear lens, on matters like Taiwan, long-term
investing, China ADRs, and common prosperity.
June 2023
In President Xi Jinping’s new
leadership team, Premier Li Qiang is akin to a character with a red mask in
Peking Opera, which symbolises a positive character with qualities like
prosperity, loyalty, courage, and heroism. Cai Qi takes on the black mask, a
character with a serious and taciturn disposition that suggests a certain
strength and roughness. These are the two persons to watch in President Xi’s
inner circle. His will, their hands.
In
“The New Peking Opera”, APS China Vice Chairman Dr Tan Kong Yam looks at how
these “two faces” will interplay and shape China’s economic policy in the
coming years. He also explores a comparison of Xi Jinping to Theodore
Roosevelt during America’s Progressive Era as well as the CCP versus Japan’s
LDP. Lastly, he gives us a glimpse of what may come towards the end of the
Xi era.
May 2023
Huawei, within a span of just several years,
stepped up onto the world stage and became a leader for telecom equipment and
consumer electronics, building a world-class company powered by
“strategic-minded lions” and “process-oriented monkeys”. This piece by APS Head
of Investment Strategy Wang Kangning looks at some of the key factors that
drove Huawei’s success, pointing out other companies that have similar DNA and
have themselves become industry leaders.
Do not be surprised to see many more Huaweis emerging in the coming years.
Do not be surprised to see many more Huaweis emerging in the coming years.
APRIL 2023
Over four weeks straddling February and March, I met with founders and
CEOs from a dozen listed companies, as well as senior executives from another
10 listcos. I also met with the founders and senior executives from a further
six companies that remain privately held. Our research trip’s twin objectives
were the re-validation of the investment theses for a dozen portfolio stocks,
and to look for new investment ideas.
At this stage of China’s economic
development and the challenges faced in its external environment, we believe a
portfolio comprising predominantly Structural Alpha stocks in the hardware and
software sectors, as well as Economic Alpha stocks, should yield steady alphas.
We also have a new alpha basket, which we label as Covid recovery alphas.
Although each visit was at least two hours, it
was the informal interactions with these business leaders, over meals and
drinks, that were most insightful because one gets to know their visions for
their companies and is also able to look through the windows into their
psyches. Many were candid. I share my findings and my observations in this
note.
Back to TopMarch 2023
Contrary to some Western analysts'
assessment, China's Communist Party has always been highly adaptable and
pragmatic. From its beginnings in 1921, to 1935 during the Long March, then the
post-1949 Mao Zedong era, to Deng Xiaoping’s leadership from the 1970s, then
under Jiang Zemin at the turn of the century, to the current leadership team
led by President Xi Jinping — the lodestar that guides the Chinese Communist
Party is that it remains China’s dominant political power, to drive China’s
modernization.
Political ideologies are but a means
to that end. In essence, the CCP is more pragmatic than dogmatic.
In
“The Pendulum Swings Back To Pragmatism?”, APS China Vice Chairman Dr Tan Kong
Yam looks at the latest swing of the pendulum towards pragmatism; the private
sector’s critical role in employment creation, growth, and the CCP’s political
legitimacy; the red line of challenging Party supremacy; how the power dynamics
between the different factions will take shape over the next 10 years under Xi,
Taiwan; and lastly, investment implications for global investors.
FEBRUARY 2023
We have held the view since last year that a potential change in the country’s approach to Covid would have the single greatest policy impact for the economy in the short term.
Now that China’s “zero-Covid” policy is behind us, this month’s essay “Portfolio Strategy for a Post-Covid Recovery” by Deputy CIO Stella Zhang explores the potential path for the economy’s recovery and the investment opportunities we see.
January 2023
We’ve had a tumultuous 2022.
Our holiday read – “A Tale of Two
Chinas” – looks into 10 big issues for global investors navigating China’s
equities in 2023, such as the prospects of a two-sun global economy, two divergent
views on China’s future, the two eras of China’s internet stocks, and where we
are in this cycle.
We’ve said that China marches to
the beat of its own drums. How about China’s domestic equities?
Our “The Big Picture” looks
into this.
December 2022
We are doing a double issue once again, for the
year-end holidays.
The first which is attached is a feature essay
by APS China Vice Chairman Dr. Tan Kong Yam – “After The 20th Party
Congress – Whither China?” – which examines President Xi Jinping’s key
priorities coming out of the 20th Party Congress, his new leadership
team, and the implications for global investors.
My outlook for 2023 will be the second issue
which will be out in mid-December.
NOVEMBER 2022
China’s property industry has been a key economic growth engine for China over the past two decades, contributing roughly 25% of the country’s GDP. However, it has been enduring a major deleveraging process since the second half of 2020, after the introduction of the “three red lines” policy. In this piece, our financials and real estate analyst Kevin Jiang examines the genesis of the tightening policies and future prospects for the “Survivors”, and we also share our thoughts on the long-term impact on the economy.
OCTOBER 2022
After the political horse-trading
season at the Beidaihe Conference ended in mid-August, President Xi Jinping
likely reached a certain degree of compromise with all factions, ahead of the
20th Party Congress that will convene on 16th October
where Xi will aim to break convention by securing a third consecutive term as
President.
While most political analysts
believe that there is no strong evidence to suggest that Xi would fail, Professor Tan Kong Yam, Deputy
Chairman of APS China Asset Management, is of the view that one must not
rule out the possibility that senior Party cadres might have successfully
persuaded Xi to step aside. There are hints of this less likely scenario in
recent subtle events, against a backdrop of tough zero-Covid measures, a
hard-hit economy, and badly shaken investor confidence.
That said, in all
likelihood, Xi will prevail and several of his protégés are likely to get
promoted to the Politburo Standing Committee (PSC), as well as advance into key
appointments in the military. Professor Tan takes a brief look at those
personalities, the person we think will likely be China’s next Premier, as well
as what may happen if Xi’s health falters in the coming years.
SEPTEMBER 2022
Some global investors ask: Is China
investible?
Professor Tan Kong Yam, Deputy
Chairman of APS China Asset Management, believes this is the wrong question.
The appropriate question is: How
best to invest in China under Xi’s doctrine? Which companies will continue to
reflect China’s relatively higher growth rate and prove to be an asset class
less correlated with global returns?
For
answers, Prof Tan analyzes President Xi Jinping’s journey from vowing to give
market forces a “decisive role” in 2013, to the actions taken over the past two
years to corral the wild horses, putting guardrails around the markets and the
economy.
AUGUST 2022
The Japanese economic miracle hit its zenith in 1989, before collapsing under the weight of investor hubris, loose lending standards, excessive risk taking, and central bank recklessness. As a group, we professional investors have this tendency to behave like lemmings once every decade, and do not seem to learn the lessons from history – the 1600s Tulipmania, the 1700s Mississippi Bubble, the TMT bubble of 2000, et cetera.
Through the eyes of a young professional Tokyo-based fund manager, we travel back to that 1980s go-go era in what seemed to be the Land of the (Forever) Rising Sun, not for good old nostalgia, but to distil the lessons from probably the biggest, craziest bubble in modern times. Hopefully, it can help us sidestep today’s bubbles, and guide us to safer spots.
I share my view of four key contributory factors of bubbles, China’s recent and current bubbles as well as those across the Pacific Ocean, what remains investable in China, and a possible “changing of the guard” among tech-focused fund managers who have achieved phenomenal successes on the back of this latest “tech stock” bull run.
july 2022
Until just five quarters ago, China internet companies had been the place to crowd for phenomenal returns. However, the bull run came to an abrupt stop after the much-hyped IPO of Ant Group, the financial arm of Alibaba, was suddenly called off on the eve of its debut. Regulatory crackdowns alone cannot explain the sector’s whopping 73% crash from the peak.
APS Senior Investment Director Wang Kangning takes us through the reasons that are more fundamental to the changing landscape of the sector: growth strategies that went awry, diminishing online traffic “dividend”, and increasing participation of short-term investors.
While these headwinds are unlikely to turn around in the next few quarters, long-term minded investors should actively look out for the next wave of innovations at a time of pessimism. In the digitization of China’s transactions, numerous fronts are yet to be conquered.
JUNE 2022
In this month’s essay, APS Founder and CIO Wong Kok Hoi shares some of the findings from his recent trip
to Canada and the US, on subjects like a two-sun system in the geopolitical
sphere, Internet stocks, and China’s Covid strategy.
MAY 2022
Despite a slowing economy, the challenge of strict lockdowns to slow the Omicron variant, and the Ukraine crisis, President Xi Jinping is likely to emerge strong after the key October 2022 meeting of China’s top political leaders.
In this month’s essay, APS China Deputy Chairman Professor Tan Kong Yam looks at how an extended tenure for Xi as the leader of China would influence government policy, US-China relations, and implications for global investors.
APRIL 2022
This month’s essay “Alphas from a Modern China”
by Stella Zhang discusses several alpha clusters that ride on China’s
transformation from a labor intensive, low value-add economy to a capital
intensive and innovation driven high value-add economy.
Identifying long-term trends is a cornerstone
of our investment process as socio-economic developments in China are often
driven by generational objectives and tend to be long-lasting. This is why APS
strives to truly understand China, to both take advantage of these trends as
well as avoid risks.
MARCH 2022
This month’s essay “Avoid Standing Naked
When the Tide Goes Out”
discusses our portfolio strategy in what is expected to be another
extraordinary year in markets.
FEBRUARY 2022
President Xi Jinping has called the upcoming 20th Party Congress later this year “a major event in the political life of the party and country”. This essay by Tan Kong Yam explores the inner workings leading up to this milestone occasion and implications for global investors.
We wish you happiness, good health, and prosperity in the New Year of the Tiger.
JANUARY 2022
December has been an eventful month so far.
US President Biden held a virtual “Summit for Democracy” inviting such leading lights as Pakistan and the Philippines.
Our holiday read – “Captain Marvel and the Chinese Crusade” by Raymond Lim – is apposite here.
This is a beautifully written essay which looks into whether China is a monster to be slayed.
December 11 was the 20th anniversary of China’s ascension to the World Trade Organisation.
Our “The Big Picture” looks into this.
DECEMBER 2021
We are doing a double issue for the year-end
holidays.
The first which is attached is a feature essay
by me – “Burning issues of 2022” – which is my outlook for the next year and
addresses amongst other issues on whether China is still investable given
recent regulatory system shocks.
The other which will be out in mid-December is
an engaging read by Raymond Lim on “Captain Marvel and the Chinese Crusade”.
We will tell you more closer to the date but do
look out for it as we are confident you won’t be disappointed by it.
November 2021
Our feature essay – “The Digital Renminbi:
China’s Escape Route?” by Tan Kong Yam and Cai Haoxiang touches on a central
issue that will be closely watched in the years to come.
OCTOBER 2021
Welcome to the inaugural issue of the APS China Monthly.
Our feature essay – “The Taiwan Question” by Raymond Lim – addresses an issue that are on many investors’ minds today.
JULY 2021
In this quarterly issue, Raymond Lim in “Sino-US: Hinge
Moment?” looks at the argument that has caused much hand wringing in the West
on whether the pandemic marks a hinge moment in history between democracy and
autocracy, with the latter apparently winning. I commend you to read it as the
chairman of our firm addresses this in his usual forthright and lucid way.
Professor Tan Kong Yam and Cai Haoxiang in “How China Found
its Confidence and Voice” take us through the thoughts of influential Chinese
leaders, so that we can perhaps better understand the direction of Sino-US
rivalry. While it is clear who, and which ideas are currently dominant, in a
country as large and as complicated as China, there remains a diversity of
views on what kind of country China should be.
There is also some diversity among the sources of clean
energy that will underpin China’s commitment to becoming carbon neutral by
2060. In “China’s Net-Zero Promise: Secure, Clean, and Profitable”, Wang
Kangning looks at the varied sources of Structural Alpha for the portfolios of
global investors as China practically rebuilds the structure of its economy,
disrupting the current energy system in its tilt towards wind, solar, and
hydrogen. For what China sets her mind to achieve, invariably gets done.
Going forward, to better serve our investors, we will
increase the frequency of our China thought pieces from the current quarterly
to a monthly – APS China Monthly –
starting from 1 October.
April 2021
In our January Talk China webinar on “Hard Truths for 2021”, our investors asked me about the most important issue among the 10 hard truths for this year, the motivation behind China’s move against Alibaba, the relevance of growth versus value in China, and a number of other questions ranging from portfolio positioning to pandemic policy. In this edition, we share with you my answers to those questions that are germane to successfully investing in China for the long haul.
Professor Tan Kong Yam, Kanishk Kakkar and Jason Yap show in their piece “Is China Winning the Trade War?” that the Sino-US trade war is not over, and China is still playing its long game of “Go”. The key battlegrounds have however shifted to the ASEAN (Association of Southeast Asian Nations) and European Union (EU) regions. They share why the manufacturing and trading of goods not considered to be of strategic importance will likely still be carried out in the ASEAN bloc, with China at the centre and effectively still the world’s factory, its workers forming a rich pool of consumers waiting to be tapped.
Every day, millions of Chinese consumers enjoy a mindboggling variety of shopping choices, with rapid technological and logistical developments in China allowing them to now buy anything they want, anytime and anywhere they want. In “China Consumer: The Value Hunt”, Chris Xu and Cai Haoxiang draw our attention to fast-rising domestic Chinese brands, a segment that international investors tend to overlook when investing in China’s burgeoning consumerism. Offering quality goods at a reasonable price, domestic brands tap on innovative channels like livestreaming to win over younger, cash-rich consumers in lower-tier cities. Some of these brands can even go global. This is where the money is, rather than the usual e-commerce and logistics suspects.
JANUARY 2021
Economies and healthcare systems across the globe start the new year battered and bruised by a wily virus that has defined 2020. As the United Kingdom took the lead in starting mass vaccinations in December amidst Covid-19 flare-ups, many investors are pricing in an imminent exit from pandemic conditions and a return to normal life. We think these hopes are premature.
In “Hard Truths For 2021”, I share with you my views for 2021: China’s probable 8%-10% economic rebound in 2021 and the fast forwarding of its anticipated return to the apex of the global economy around 2025, the resilience of Covid-19, rocky Sino-US relations, China regulating tech rather than punishing Jack, China e-commerce being more bubble than magic, the danger of Modern Monetary Theory and a plummeting USD, the revival of value investing, as well as the challengers to China’s crown as the world’s factory.
In “Silver Bullets and Magic Wands – Can Covid-19 Vaccines Save 2021?”, Dr Sarah Li Yun examines topics such as the odds for vaccine “surgical strikes” eliminating the coronavirus with no collateral damage and no masks in sight, as well as the realities and myths of vaccines.
In an extraordinary year like 2020 that saw all major economies contract painfully, China would not have posted 2%-3% growth without a strong domestic economy. Professor Tan Kong Yam and Cai Haoxiang show in their piece, “China’s Two-Horse Economy Will Canter On”, how Covid-19 and the trade war has given the country a powerful nudge towards a consumption-driven economy. Investors should continue to bet on the domestic demand horse, which can pull China ahead of other countries in the years to come.
October 2020
The United States’ presidential election in a month’s time is one of those defining moments in its history. Whether it will be more “American Carnage” or the return of the “Audacity of Hope”, it will also have an impact beyond its shores. In “Sino-US: Dominion”, Raymond Lim looks at this most important bilateral relationship in the world.
Jason Yap, Cai Haoxiang and Professor Tan Kong Yam discuss in their piece, “Breaking up with China is hard to do”, the impact of COVID-19 and rising Sino-US tensions on supply chain disruption across large and small companies globally, and explore the case for a global supply chain re-configuration, focussing on the US and China and the associated risks and opportunities.
In “Schrödinger Cat Walks Down Wall Street”, Wong Kok Hoi makes the case that one set of investment fundamentals can only lead to one outcome, no matter how many interpretations. The ultimate mathematics of investing is that the present value of the company must be about equal to the present value of all future cash flows most of the time, and there have been no exceptions in the history of investing. Any large deviation from this in the short term, such as the exuberant stock market rebound since March, will be brought back to reality by this investment axiom.
JULY 2020
Even in the midst of the coronavirus crisis, US-China tensions continue to ratchet up in the South China Sea. Raymond Lim’s piece on “What Xi’s China Wants” looks at why the South China Sea is the principal arena where the contest for strategic dominance by these two great powers is being played out.
In this contest, China draws strength from a rising grassroots nationalism led by the post-1990, post-Deng generation. In “A Brief History of China’s Economic Transformation: A Personal Perspective”, Professor Tan Kong Yam examines the investment impact of this younger generation’s unfolding attitudinal transformation towards Chinese brands, at the expense of foreign ones.
Finally, in “Why China Now?”, Stella Zhang and Chris Xu take on the naysayers and make the case why it makes sense to invest in China.
April 2020
In “China: From Panda to
Dragon”, Raymond Lim a former Cabinet Minister in the Singapore Government,
discusses the geopolitical impact of China’s rise in Xi Jinping’s New Era. This
is particularly germane as never before has geopolitics impacted so much on
markets.
The next essay “China politics
in the age of the coronavirus” is by Professor Tan Kong Yam, a China expert who
worked previously in the World Bank’s China office. He examines the impact of
the coronavirus on the factional dynamics between the liberal and nationalist
factions in China.
Finally, in “Death to China?”, Wong Kok Hoi, Founder and CIO of APS Asset Management argues how difficult it is for the US to try to kill off China’s economy
through decoupling and other measures.